2022.08.05 Level Forecast

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 323.96 m (1062.9 ft), over 95th percentile level for this time of year. The average lake level declined by 6 cm (2 in) over the past week. The lake level is above the 2014 peak of 323.78 m (1062.29 ft) and is below the record peak since regulation began of 324.31 m (1064.0 ft), set in July of 1950. The dams in Kenora remain fully open. Over the next week the lake level is expected to decline by 12 to 14 cm (4.5 to 5.5 in).

Upstream, the level of Rainy Lake entered its Rule Curves on August 3rd. The first outflow reduction from Rainy Lake occurred on August 2nd and the second was completed August 5th. These flow reductions will have a direct effect on the level of Lake of the Woods, increasing its rate of decline.

With decreasing inflows to Lake of the Woods, the outflow from the lake will also gradually drop. Levels along the Winnipeg River will see moderate decreases of up to 10 cm (4 in) directly below the Norman Dam and 6 cm (2 in) at Minaki.

The current level of Lac Seul is 356.73 m (1170.4 ft), 90th percentile level for this time of year. The level of the main body of Lac Seul increased 2 cm (1 in) over the past week and is expected to decline by up to 5 cm (2 in) over the next week depending on rainfall. Lac Seul authorized outflow increased to 450 m³/s on Friday, August 5th.

Manitoba Hydro has provided the following forecast for the Winnipeg River through the Whiteshell.

2022.08.04 July Precipitation

Although water levels on the major lakes peaked in June, heavier precipitation over the month of July did cause levels to stall. All areas of the basin received above normal precipitation between July 1st and 30th, even ranking above 80th percentile for all sub-watersheds, as shown in the graph and table below. This was a reversal of conditions compared to the month of June, which saw lower than normal precipitation totals. A significant portion of the basin recorded between 100 and 140 mm of rainfall over the course of the month. Some pockets of very high precipitation, ranging from 150 to 200 mm, were recorded along the Winnipeg River just North of Kenora and in the upper reaches of the Rainy Lake sub-watershed near Atikokan.

Basin Mean Precipitation July 1-31 / Source: Canadian Precipitation Analysis
July 1-31 Precipitation Totals for Lake of the Woods and Lac Seul and Comparable Percentiles for June 1-10

This higher than normal precipitation caused the levels of Lac Seul and Lake of the Woods to remain relatively stable over the month of July, rather than continuing or starting to decline. Some tributaries saw temporary increases in flows, especially those located where very high precipitation pockets occurred. The levels along the English River and the Winnipeg River in Manitoba did continue to decline. While levels on the Winnipeg River in Ontario remained stable.

Both Rainy and Namakan Lakes fell below their respective All Gates Open levels in July and re-entered their rule curves in early August. This return to normal levels upstream of Lake of the Woods has allowed for significant outflow reductions from Rainy Lake. With these outflow reductions, and should precipitation conditions remain normal in August, the level of Lake of the Woods will start to decline at a much faster rate than in July.

2022.08.03 Level Forecast

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 323.99 m (1062.9 ft), over 95th percentile level for this time of year. The average lake level declined by 6 cm (2 in) over the past week. The lake level is above the 2014 peak of 323.78 m (1062.29 ft) and is below the record peak since regulation began of 324.31 m (1064.0 ft), set in July of 1950. The dams in Kenora remain fully open. Over the next week the lake level is expected to decline by 10 to 12 cm (4 to 5 in).

Upstream, the level of Rainy Lake entered its Rule Curves on August 3d. The first outflow reduction from Rainy Lake occurred on August 2nd and another reduction is scheduled for later this week. These flow reductions will have a direct effect on the level of Lake of the Woods, increasing its rate of decline.

With decreasing inflows to Lake of the Woods, the outflow from the lake will also gradually drop. Levels along the Winnipeg River will see moderate decreases of up to 9 cm (4 in) directly below the Norman Dam and 6 cm (2 in) at Minaki.

The current level of Lac Seul is 356.72 m (1170.3 ft), 90th percentile level for this time of year. The level of the main body of Lac Seul changed little over the past week and is expected to decline by up to 4 cm (1.5 in) over the next week depending on rainfall. Lac Seul authorized outflow is scheduled to increase to 450 m³/s on Friday, August 5th.

2022.08.01 Level Forecast

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 324.0 m (1063.0 ft), over 95th percentile level for this time of year. The average lake level declined by 6 cm (2 in) over the past week. The lake level is above the 2014 peak of 323.78 m (1062.29 ft) and is below the record peak since regulation began of 324.31 m (1064.0 ft), set in July of 1950. The dams in Kenora remain fully open. Over the next week the lake level is expected to decline by 8 to 10 cm (3 to 4 in).

Upstream, the level of Rainy Lake is expected to re-enter its Rule Curves as of August 1st. Outflow reductions from Rainy Lake are scheduled for this week and these flow reductions will have a direct effect on the level of Lake of the Woods, increasing its rate of decline.

With decreasing inflows to Lake of the Woods, the outflow from the lake will also gradually drop. Levels along the Winnipeg River will see moderate decreases of up to 9 cm (4 in) directly below the Norman Dam and 6 cm (2 in) at Minaki.

The current level of Lac Seul is 356.71 m (1170.3 ft), 90th percentile level for this time of year. The level of the main body of Lac Seul changed little over the past week and is expected to decline by up to 3 cm (1 in) over the next week depending on rainfall. Lac Seul authorized outflow is 400 m³/s with no changes scheduled.

2022.07.29 Level Forecast

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 324.03 m (1063.1 ft), over 95th percentile level for this time of year. The average lake level declined by 6 cm (2 in) over the past week. The lake level is above the 2014 peak of 323.78 m (1062.29 ft) and is below the record peak since regulation began of 324.31 m (1064.0 ft), set in July of 1950. The dams in Kenora remain fully open. Over the next week the lake level is expected to decline by 8 to 10 cm (3 to 4 in).

Upstream, the level of Rainy Lake has dropped below the All Gates Open level, allowing the closure of some dam gates earlier this week. There will be further outflow reductions from Rainy Lake next week and likely the week after, depending on rainfall over this period. These flow reductions will have a direct effect on the level of Lake of the Woods, increasing its rate of decline.

With decreasing inflows to Lake of the Woods, the outflow from the lake will also gradually drop. Levels along the Winnipeg River will see moderate decreases of up to 9 cm (4 in) directly below the Norman Dam and 6 cm (2 in) at Minaki.

The current level of Lac Seul is 356.71 m (1170.3 ft), 85th percentile level for this time of year. The level of the main body of Lac Seul changed little over the past week and could rise by up to 3 cm (1 in) or decrease by up to 3 cm (1 in) over the next week depending on rainfall. Lac Seul authorized outflow is 400 m³/s with no changes scheduled.

Manitoba Hydro has provided the following forecast for the Winnipeg River through the Whiteshell.

2022.07.28 Level Forecast

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 324.03 m (1063.1 ft), over 95th percentile level for this time of year. The average lake level declined by 6cm (2 in) over the past week. The lake level is above the 2014 peak of 323.78 m (1062.29 ft) and is below the record peak since regulation began of 324.31 m (1064.0 ft), set in July of 1950. The dams in Kenora remain fully open. Over the next week the lake level is expected to decline by 9 to 12 cm (4 to 5 in).

Upstream, the level of Rainy Lake has dropped below the All Gates Open level, allowing the closure of some dam gates earlier this week. There will be further outflow reductions from Rainy Lake next week and likely the week after, depending on rainfall over this period. These flow reductions will have a direct effect on the level of Lake of the Woods, increasing its rate of decline.

With decreasing inflows to Lake of the Woods, the outflow from the lake will also gradually drop. Levels along the Winnipeg River will see moderate decreases of up to 8 cm (3 in) directly below the Norman Dam and 6 cm (2 in) at Minaki.

The current level of Lac Seul is 356.71 m (1170.3 ft), 85th percentile level for this time of year. The level of the main body of Lac Seul changed little over the past week and is expected to remain fairly stable over the next week. Lac Seul authorized outflow is 400 m³/s with no changes scheduled.

2022.07.25 Level Forecast

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 324.07 m (1063.2 ft), over 95th percentile level for this time of year. The average lake level remained stable over the past week. The lake level is above the 2014 peak of 323.78 m (1062.29 ft) and is below the record peak since regulation began of 324.31 m (1064.0 ft), set in July of 1950. The dams in Kenora remain fully open. Over the next week, the lake level is expected to declined by 5 to 9 cm (2 to 4 in).

Upstream, the level of Rainy Lake is expected to drop below the All Gates Open level in the next couple days, allowing the closure of dam gates. There will be a first reduction in outflow from Rainy Lake on July 26th or 27th. The effect of this flow reduction on the level of Lake of the Woods, will be seen closer to the end of the week. The level of Rainy Lake will then return to the normal IJC-regulated range in the first week of August. Additional outflow reductions are planned and barring a return to very wet weather, this should result in a much faster rate of decline at Lake of the Woods and the Winnipeg River towards mid-August.

With decreasing inflows to Lake of the Woods, the outflow from the lake will also gradually drop. Levels along the Winnipeg River will see moderate decreases of up to 8 cm (3 in) directly below the Norman Dam and 6 cm (2 in) at Minaki.

The current level of Lac Seul is 356.72 m (1170.3 ft), 80th percentile level for this time of year. The level of the main body of Lac Seul changed little over the past week. The lake level is expected to remain stable over the next week. Lac Seul authorized outflow is 400 m³/s with no changes scheduled.

2022.07.22 Level Forecast

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 324.10 m (1063.3 ft), over 95th percentile level for this time of year. The average lake level increased by 1.5 cm due to the heavy rainfall on July 19th. The lake level is above the 2014 peak of 323.78 m (1062.29 ft) and is below the record peak since regulation began of 324.31 m (1064.0 ft), set in July of 1950. The dams in Kenora remain fully open. Over the next week, the lake level is expected to declined by 2 to 8 cm (1 to 3 in) with drier conditions in the forecast.

The significant rainfall of July 19th caused the level of the Winnpeg River to increase by 5 cm (2 in) directly below the Norman Dam, by 7.5 cm (3 in) at Minaki and by 13 cm (5 in) at Boundary Falls near the Manitoba border. These temporary level increases were caused by local inflows and levels are expected to decrease over the next week.

Upstream, the level of Rainy Lake is expected to return to the normal IJC-regulated range at the end of July. As the lake level declines, outflow from Rainy Lake is also falling, and much larger cuts are expected once the lake returns to normal summer levels. Barring a return to very wet weather, this should result in a much faster rate of decline at Lake of the Woods and the Winnipeg River towards the beginning of August.

The current level of Lac Seul is 356.72 m (1170.3 ft), 80th percentile level for this time of year. The level of the main body of Lac Seul changed little over the past week. With some rainfall in the forecast, the lake level is expected to remain stable over the next week with possible changes of +4 cm or – 2.5 cm (+1.5 in or – 1 in). Lac Seul authorized outflow is 400 m³/s with no changes scheduled.

Manitoba Hydro has provided the following forecast for the Winnipeg River through the Whiteshell.

2022.07.20 Level Forecast

Some parts of the basin received significant rainfall on July 19th, with widespread totals of 50 mm and as much as 100 mm falling over part of the Winnipeg River directly downstream of Kenora. These high local rainfalls will cause tributary flows and river levels to increase. These increases should be temporary with a return to drier conditions forecasted for the next week.

Total Precipitation Over the Past 24 Hours / Source: CaPA

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 324.09 m (1063.3 ft), over 95th percentile level for this time of year. The average lake level increased by 1.5 cm due to the heavy rainfall on July 19. The lake level is above the 2014 peak of 323.78 m (1062.29 ft) and is below the record peak since regulation began of 324.31 m (1064.0 ft), set in July of 1950. The dams in Kenora remain fully open. Over the next week, the lake level is expected to declined by up to 2.5 cm (1 in) with drier conditions in the forecast.

The significant rainfall of July 19 caused the level of the Winnpeg River to increase by 4 cm (1.5 in) directly below the Norman Dam, by 5.5 cm (2 in) at Minaki and by 13 cm (5 in) at Boundary Falls near the Manitoba border. These level increases were caused by local inflows. With no changes to Lake of the Woods outflow, these increased river levels are expected to be temporary.

The current level of Lac Seul is 356.71 m (1170.3 ft), 80th percentile level for this time of year. The level of the main body of Lac Seul increased by 1 cm due to the heavy rainfall on July 19. With some rain forecasted for this part of the basin tomorrow, the lake level is expected to decrease by 4 cm (1.5 in) over the next week. Lac Seul authorized outflow is 400 m³/s with no changes scheduled. Levels along the English River will be temporarily affected by the heavy rainfall of July 19th as local inflows did increase.

2022.07.18 Level Forecast

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 324.07 m (1063.2 ft), over 95th percentile level for this time of year. The average lake level declined by 2 cm (0.5 in) over the past week. The lake level is above the 2014 peak of 323.78 m (1062.29 ft) and is below the record peak since regulation began of 324.31 m (1064.0 ft), set in July of 1950. The dams in Kenora remain fully open.

With some precipitation forecasted for the next week 3 to 4 days, the level of Lake of the Woods is expected to increase slightly and then continue its decline. The lake level is expected to fall by up to 4 cm (2 in) over the next 7 days.

As the lake level increases or drops slightly, the outflow into the Winnipeg River will follow suit and small changes in river level are expected. The level of the Winnipeg River immediately below the Norman Dam and down to Minaki is expected to change by 1-3 cm (1 in) over the next 7 days. Local heavy rainfall can cause the river level to rise high than forecasted temporarily.

Upstream, the level of Rainy Lake is expected to return to the normal IJC-regulated range at the end of July. As the lake level declines, outflow from Rainy Lake is also falling, and much larger cuts are expected once the lake returns to normal summer levels. Barring a return to very wet weather, this should result in a much faster rate of decline at Lake of the Woods and the Winnipeg River towards the beginning of August.

The current level of Lac Seul is 356.70 m (1170.3 ft), 80th percentile level for this time of year. With some rain in the forecast, the level of the main body of Lac Seul is expected increase by 3 cm (1 in), but decline over the course of the week by up to 1.5 cm (0.5 in). Lac Seul authorized outflow is scheduled to be decreased from 450 m³/s to 400 m³/s on Monday, July 18. With recent cuts in outflow and declining tributary flows across the watershed, the level of the English River is expected to continue to fall but will likely not reach normal summer levels this month.