2024.08.22 Level Forecast and Lake of the Woods Outflow Reductions

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 323.00 m (1059.7 ft), an 50th percentile level, in the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level decreased by 8 cm (3 in) over the last week and is expected to decrease by 2 to 5 cm (0.5 to 2 in), over the next week. 

The basin received almost no precipitation over the past week, and only moderate amounts of rainfall are expected over the next week. Therefore, additional outflow reductions are required to continue to slow the rate of level decline on Lake of the Woods. Authorized outflow will decrease to:

  • 725 m3/s on Friday, August 23rd
  • 675 m3/s on Monday, August 26th
  • 625 m3/s on Wednesday, August 28th
  • 575 m3/s on Friday, August 30th

The scheduled outflow reductions will cause levels along the Winnipeg River to decline as follows:

  • Directly downstream of the Norman Dam: approximately 14 cm (5.5 in) with each outflow reduction, 43 cm (17 in) total drop by August 30th
  • Above the Dalles: approximately 9 cm (3.5 in) with each outflow reduction, 27 cm (10.5 in) total drop by August 30th
  • Minaki: Once Lake of the Woods outflow falls below 700 m3/s, the level at Minaki will once again be managed by the Whitedog Dam forebay elevation. The water level will drop approximately 13 cm (5 in) before stabilizing at or below 316.09 m (1037.0 ft) early next week.

The current level of Lac Seul is 356.41 m (1169.3 ft), a 35th percentile level, within the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level declined by 0.5 cm (0.5 in) over the past week and is expected to remain stable over the next week. Lac Seul authorized outflow is 350 m3/s with no changes scheduled.

2024.08.15 Level Forecast and Lake of the Woods Outflow Reductions

Inflow to Lake of the Woods has dropped extremely quickly, going from 80th to 40th percentile over the last week. The lake level has also declined rapidly coming down as much as 13 cm (5 in) over the last week and now sitting in the normal range. Weather forecasts for the Winnipeg River basin are hot and relatively dry for the next week. Therefore, to slow Lake of the Woods level decline, and balance outflow with inflow, additional outflow reductions are required next week.

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 323.08 m (1059.9 ft), an 55th percentile level, in the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level decreased by 12 cm (4.5 in) over the last week and is expected to decrease by 4 to 7 cm (1.5 to 2.5 in), over the next week. Lake of the Woods authorized outflow will decrease to:

  • 875 m3/s on Friday, August 16th
  • 825 m3/s on Monday, August 19th
  • 775 m3/s on Wednesday, August 21st
  • 725 m3/s on Friday, August 23rd

The scheduled outflow reductions will cause levels along the Winnipeg River to decline as follows:

  • Directly downstream of the Norman Dam: 15 cm (6 in) with each outflow reduction, 74 cm (29 in) total drop by August 23rd
  • Above the Dalles: 11 cm (4 in) with each outflow reduction, 51 cm (20 in) total drop by August 23rd
  • Minaki: 10 cm (4 in) with each outflow reduction, 50 cm (19.5 in) total drop by August 23rd

The current level of Lac Seul is 356.41 m (1169.3 ft), a 35th percentile level, within the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level increased by 2 cm (1 in) over the past week and is expected to remain stable over the next week. Lac Seul authorized outflow is 350 m3/s with no changes scheduled.

2024.08.13 Lake of the Woods Outflow Reductions

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 323.11 m (1060.1 ft), a 55th percentile level, in the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level decreased by 13 cm (4 in) over the last week and is expected to decrease by 6 to 10 cm (2 to 4 in), over the next week.

Over the last week, dam operators did no accurately estimate outflow at the outlet of Lake of the Woods. As a result, additional outflow reductions are required to achieved an authorized outflow of 875 m3/s by Saturday, August 17th as planned. Lake of the Woods outflow will decrease by approximately:

  • 100 m3/s on Wednesday, August 14th
  • 93 m3/s on Friday, August 16th

If conditions remain dry, similar outflow reductions will be required the following week to slow the rate of lake level decline. The scheduled outflow reductions will cause levels along the Winnipeg River to decline as follows:

  • Directly downstream of the Norman Dam: 30 cm (12 in) with each outflow reduction, 53 cm (21 in) total drop by August 17th
  • Above the Dalles: 23 cm (9 in) with each outflow reduction, 40 cm (16 in) total drop by August 17th
  • Minaki: 20 cm (8 in) with each outflow reduction, 34 cm (13 in) total drop by August 17th

2024.08.08 Level Forecast and Lake of the Woods Outflow Reductions

The northern portions of the Winnipeg River basin are receiving moderate precipitation this week which will help maintain levels and flows. In the southern half of the basin, precipitation has been low and forecasts for next week are very dry. Inflow to Lake of the Woods is therefore declining rapidly and the lake level has also started to drop. To maintain a gradual decline in lake level, outflow reductions at Lake of the Woods are required, as long as conditions remain dry.

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 323.20 m (1060.4 ft), an 80th percentile level, above the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level decreased by 8 cm (3 in) over the last week and is expected to decrease by 6 to 10 cm (2 to 4 in), over the next week. Lake of the Woods authorized outflow will decrease to:

  • 975 m3/s on Thursday, August 8th
  • 925 m3/s on Monday, August 12th
  • 875 m3/s on Thursday, August 15th

If conditions remain dry, similar outflow reductions will be required the following week to slow the rate of lake level decline. The scheduled outflow reductions will cause levels along the Winnipeg River to decline as follows:

  • Directly downstream of the Norman Dam: 15 cm (6 in) with each outflow reduction, 52 cm (20 in) total drop by August 16th
  • Above the Dalles: 11 cm (4 in) with each outflow reduction, 38 cm (15 in) total drop by August 16th
  • Minaki: 10 cm (4 in) with each outflow reduction, 33 cm (13 in) total drop by August 16th

The current level of Lac Seul is 356.36 m (1169.2 ft), a 30th percentile level, within the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level decreased by 2 cm (1 in) over the past week and is expected to decrease by 2 to 4 cm (0.5 to 1.5 in) over the next week. Lac Seul authorized outflow is 350 m3/s with no changes scheduled.

2024.08.06 Lake of the Woods Outflow Reduction

Levels have been steadily declining on Lake of the Woods for more than a week and are expected to continue declining with decreasing flows on the Rainy River upstream. The current level of Lake of the Woods is 323.24 m (1060.5 ft), an 85th percentile level, above the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level decreased by 6 cm (2 in) over the last week and is expected to decrease by 3 to 6 cm (1 to 2 in), over the next week. Lake of the Woods authorized outflow will decrease to 975 m3/s on Thursday, August 8th. Depending on precipitation, additional outflow reductions may be required next week.  

This outflow reduction will cause levels along the Winnipeg River to decline by approximately 22 cm (8.5 in) directly downstream of the Norman Dam, 17 cm (6.5 in) above the Dalles and 14 cm (5.5 in) at Minaki.

Inflows and levels at Lac Seul are expected to remain stable over the next week. No outflow changes are planned with authorized outflow remaining at 350 m3/s.

2024.08.01 Conditions Update and Level Forecast

With the exception of some heavy rainfall early this week impacting the headwaters of Lac Seul, conditions across the Winnipeg River basin have become much drier and very hot. This has allowed for tributary flows and lake inflows to start declining steadily. Upstream of Lake of the Woods, both Rainy and Namakan Lakes are expected to return to their rule curves this week, and as a result, outflow reductions at these lakes are underway. Once the level of Lake of the Woods has also come down a few more centimeters, outflow reductions at the dams in Kenora will be scheduled next week to match the cuts upstream and begin providing relief downstream on the Winnipeg River. More details on the outflow reductions will be provided early next week.

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 323.29 m (1060.6 ft), an 85th percentile level, above the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level decreased by 2 cm (1 in) over the last week and is expected to decrease by 3 to 6 cm (1 to 2 in), over the next week. Lake of the Woods outflow is 1061 m3/s with all sluices fully open at the Norman Dam in Kenora. The dams cannot be opened any more and outflow will rise and fall with the lake level.  

With the Norman Dam fully open, outflows will change with lake levels and so will levels along the Winnipeg River.

The current level of Lac Seul is 356.38 m (1169.2 ft), a 30th percentile level, within the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level increased by 2 cm (1 in) over the past week and is expected to remain stable, increasing or decreasing by 1 to 2 cm (0.5 to 1 in) over the next week. Lac Seul authorized outflow is 350 m3/s with no additional changes currently scheduled.

2024.07.25 Conditions Update

The basin received moderate precipitation over the last week. As a result, inflows to the major lakes have remained high. Levels on Rainy and Namakan lakes as well as Lake of the Woods continue to decrease. With a large rainfall event forecast for July 27th and 28th, conditions will remain wet. This rainfall event will cause inflows to temporarily increase and will likely cause Rainy Lake and Lake of the Woods levels to stabilize or increase.

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 323.31 m (1060.72 ft), an 80th percentile level for this time of year. The average lake level decreased by 2 cm (1 in) over the last week and could decrease by 2 cm (1 in) or increase by 5 cm (2 in), over the next week, depending on precipitation amounts . Lake of the Woods outflow is 1062 m3/s with all sluices fully open at the Norman Dam in Kenora. The dams cannot be opened any more and outflow will rise and fall with the lake level.  

With the Norman Dam fully open, outflows will change with lake levels and so will levels along the Winnipeg River.

The current level of Lac Seul is 356.36 m (1169.16 ft), a 30th percentile level, within the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level increased by 3 cm (1 in) over the past week and is expected to increase by 4 cm (1.5 in) or decrease by 1 cm (0.5 in) over the next week. Lac Seul authorized outflow is 350 m3/s with no additional changes currently scheduled.

2024.07.18 Conditions Update

Moderate amounts of precipitation fell over the basin last week. Despite the rain, inflows to all major lakes have continued to decrease. Namakan Lake levels continue to decline and this week Rainy Lake level has stabilized. Lake of the Woods levels have also stabilized and are currently declining. With minimal precipitation in the forecast this trend is expected to continue.

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 323.33 m (1060.79 ft), an 80th percentile level for this time of year. The average lake level decreased by 2 cm (1 in) over the last week and is expected to continue decreasing by 2 to 4 cm, over the next week, depending on precipitation amounts . Lake of the Woods outflow is 1099 m3/s with all sluices fully open at the Norman Dam in Kenora. The dams cannot be opened any more and outflow will rise and fall with the lake level.  

With lake levels expected to slowly decline, outflows and levels along the Winnipeg River are expected to decline in a similar manner.

The current level of Lac Seul is 356.34 m (1169.09 ft), a 35th percentile level, within the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level increased by 2 cm (1 in) over the past week and is expected to increase by 1 to 3 cm (0.5 to 1 in) over the next week. Lac Seul authorized outflow is 350 m3/s with no additional changes currently scheduled.

2024.07.11 Conditions Update

After experiencing very wet conditions over the last couple of months, the Winnipeg River basin received less precipitation over the last week.The dry conditions have led to decreasing tributary flows and lake inflows across most of the basin. Lower inflows have helped slow the rate of lake level rise with conditions stabilizing over the past few days. There is moderate to heavy rainfall in the forecast early next week which could lead to increasing flows.

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 323.35 m (1060.86 ft), an 80th percentile level for this time of year. The average lake level increased by 2 cm (1 in) over the last week and is expected to remain relatively stable, over the next week, depending on precipitation amounts and upstream flow changes. Lake of the Woods outflow is 1070 m3/s with all sluices fully open at the Norman Dam in Kenora. The dams cannot be opened any more and outflow will rise and fall with the lake level.  

With lake levels expected to remain relatively stable, outflows are not expected to vary significantly. As such, levels along the Winnipeg River are expected to remain stable. Levels may vary as a result of local inflows.

The current level of Lac Seul is 356.32 m (1169.03 ft), a 35th percentile level, within the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level increased by 6 cm (2.5 in) over the past week and is expected to increase by 7 to 12 cm (3 to 5 in) over the next week. Lac Seul authorized outflow is 350 m3/s with no additional changes currently scheduled.

2024.07.04 Winnipeg River Conditions and Level Forecasts

Over the last month, outflow from Lake of the Woods has been steadily increased due to sustained high inflows to the lake and rising water levels. These outflow increases have caused levels along the Winnipeg River in both Ontario and Manitoba to rise by several feet. River levels near Kenora have come up 285 cm (112 in) since mid-May. Further downstream, natural constrictions in the river hold back water and the level of the Winnipeg River is affected differently by the outflow from Lake of the Woods. The graph and map below show the water level at different locations along the Winnipeg River for different outflows from Lake of the Woods. The current outflow is close to 1100 m3/s, which means river levels are close to those shown by the green line in the graph.

At the town of Minaki, the river level is normally controlled by operations at the Whitedog Dam. However, because outflow from Lake of the Woods has been increased above 700 m3/s, the dam can no longer control water levels and they have begun to rise as well. The level at Minaki has increased by 93 cm (37.5 in) since June 1st, just before Lake of the Woods outflow rose above 700 m3/s, which is 92 cm (37 in) above the normal level of 316.09 m. Further downstream in Manitoba, levels along the Winnipeg River have also increased and are now above their normal range for this time of year. The level at Nutimik Lake has increased by 105 cm (41 in) since June 1st.

All sluice gates at the Norman Dam in Kenora are now open and outflow from Lake of the Woods can only increase with rising lake levels. The outflow will therefore increase gradually, unless heavy rainfall occurs. Over the next week, outflow is expected to increase by approximately 10 to 20 m3/s. Levels along the Winnipeg River will therefore rise by:

Below the Norman Dam 6 cm (2.5 in)
Above Kimberley Rapids 5 cm (2 in)
Winnipeg River Marina 5 cm (2 in)
Near Locke Bay 5 cm (2 in)
Above Myrtle Rapids 5 cm (2 in)
Above the Dalles 5 cm (2 in)
Above Throat Rapids 5 cm (2 in)
Minaki 4 cm (1.5 in)
Estimated Changes in Winnipeg River Levels

For levels on the Winnipeg River in Manitoba, Manitoba Hydro provides a water level forecast: https://www.hydro.mb.ca/corporate/operations/water-levels/